Last January, the former leader of the Soviet Union, Mikhail Gorbachev, eerily declared that “it looks like the world is preparing for war.” In fact, many notable commentators agree with this dismal assessment, including some who see the Syrian civil war as the beginning of World War III . Perhaps buttressing this view, President Donald Trump recently decided to arm the Syrian Kurds , a move that will likely inflame relations with the increasingly less democratic state of Turkey, which is a key ally in the fight against the Islamic State. Meanwhile, U.S.-Russian relations “ may be at an all-time low ” according to Trump himself, and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has repeatedly affirmed that “all options [are] on the table” with respect to the rogue state of North Korea, an avid experimenter with nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. The world situation is rife with risk potential , and its immense complexity requires cool heads ca...